Germany's Doesn't Do US Any Favors With Draw

Germany's Doesn't Do US Any Favors With Draw
Posted on June 22, 2014 by Tim

Germany drew Ghana 2-2 on Saturday in one of the most exciting matches of the World Cup. The result has some tricky effects for the United States, which will play Portugal in Manaus, Brazil, on Sunday. It increases the chance that the U.S. will finish first in Group G —that probability is now 20 percent, compared with 11 percent before the match. However, it slightly reduces the Americans’ overall chances of advancing. Those odds are down to 64 percent from 69 percent before.

The reason is a bit technical. One of the likelier outcomes for the Americans is to finish with four points in the group by drawing Portugal or Germany but losing the other match. If Ghana had lost to Germany, it would have finished with three points at best. Now, however, Ghana could also finish with four points if it beats Portugal, potentially denying the U.S. advancement if the teams finish in a tie for second.